Look to Labor Day as the point at which the U.S. economy shifts from low gear into a modestly higher gear. That’s when the 2% growth rate of recent years is expected to accelerate to a new cyclical growth rate of 3% or more, according the latest economic update from BNY Mellon’s Chief Economist Richard Hoey.

“We do face the sequester in the next few months, so that might give us a few months of more mixed economic numbers. But, from Labor Day on, I expect the U.S. economy will have a trend of growth faster than in the last several years,” he says in a video.

Hoey anticipates that the global economy will continue to expand this year, with a faster pace of growth close to 4% likely next year. He thinks economic growth may be temporarily sluggish in the middle months of 2013 due to the final phase of the overall European recession and the impact of U.S. fiscal tightening.

Easy monetary policy is the primary reason Hoey is optimistic about the global economy. “Financial conditions are easy practically every place in the world, except peripheral Europe,” he says. 

Hoey is less optimistic about Europe, which remains in recession. He predicts that core European countries will likely come out of recession about the middle of 2013, but peripheral European countries will stay in recession throughout the year.

“I don’t think Europe will have an economic recovery nearly as fast as what we’re likely to see after Labor Day in the United States,” Hoey says.

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